You are the climate advisor to the French Deputy Chief of Staff, who has himself been appointed climate delegate. What are your missions?

Bastien Alex: My job consists in leading and supporting the implementation of the 'climate & defence' strategy, which itself comes under the responsibility of the Deputy Chief of Staff. To achieve this, we’ve been working to translate the objectives of this strategy into concrete actions with precise deliverables, systematically co-constructed with our interlocutors within the ministry. We then promote them among the services, directorates and agencies, to gradually integrate climate change and its consequences into all our decision-making and capability processes.

Can you give us an example of a deliverable?

The "climate & defence" fresco. Deployed from July 2023, this tool raises awareness of climate issues among civilian and military personnel. Designed as a serious game[1] , it offers keys to understanding climate change, its structural causes and its consequences on security and defence issues, all in a playful manner. At the end of a session, the "players" understand why the armed forces need to adapt, and at the same time they become familiar with the "climate & defence" strategy. To date, 560 people have taken part in the fresco and more than 80 facilitators have been trained. They are spread across the various services of the armed forces and within defence companies, so they are all correspondents for promoting it. 

In your work, which areas do you focus on?

Our main line of effort remains the adaptation of the armed forces to climate change. This comprises the adaptation of personnel, equipment, materials, infrastructure and missions. All of these are already affected - and will be even more so in the future - by climate change. It challenges the resilience of our equipment and materials and our ability to fulfil our operational contracts. We therefore need to prepare for them if we are to maintain the effectiveness of our military.

Could you give us a concrete example of the foreseeable impact of climate change on military operations?

All the pieces of equipment aren’t heat resistant. Above 45°C, for example, helicopters have some difficulties in taking off because the air is less dense. This phenomenon affects their carrying capacity and is likely to change the way we use this equipment in certain "high heat" theatres of operation. therefore, to perform the same missions, we may need two aircraft and therefore an additional pilot, more fuel, and greater logistical support... All this needs to be anticipated and planned.

How do you proceed?

We need to start from science: for example, characterising climatic trends in an environment where the armed forces could potentially deploy, to identify possible capability gaps. We have carried out a study on the evolution of temperatures in "high heat" theatres, including the Middle East. This study showed that, by 2050, we will have 120 days a year at +45°C in some places, compared with just five days a year in the 2020s in the Sahel theatre, which we are very familiar with. That's the equivalent of four months when the night-time temperature won't fall below 30°C. The consequences will be numerous, on the soldiers’ physiology, on equipment and on electronics. On the basis of this study, the Operations Planning and Conduct Centre[2]designed a credible scenario for the employment of forces in this region in 2040. We have presented this scenario to the trainees on the War College's Environment and Climate Committee, who will be tasked with producing the foundations of a Concept of Operations[3] , a NATO planning document. This helps to raise awareness and train future officers, as well as identifying potential capability gaps.

The "climate & defence" strategy was adopted in April 2022. Can you give us an assessment two and a half years later?

The assessment is positive. In terms of acculturation, we have deployed the fresco, drafted a Security and Climate Atlas, developed a collaborative space that is followed by 250 people, launched monthly scientific meetings, etc. We have also published an inter-service prospective study on "the impact of climate change on the use of forces by 2050". This document contains contributions from various armed forces services which have assessed the vulnerabilities and impacts of climate change at their level. This key document will serve as a basis for developing specific adaptation plans according to the agencies. The analysis of the vulnerability of military infrastructures on national territory has also been accelerated thanks to the strategy. In particular, the Defence Infrastructure Techniques Expertise Centre has developed a methodology that will be tested on six military sites in 2025. The aim is to adapt them to tomorrow's climate and hazards.

Do you work in cooperation with the countries of the European Union?

In 2022, the European Union (EU) asked its Member States to adopt a "climate & defence" strategy — we had just done so. Since then, around ten European countries have published their own strategies. In addition, there is a working group at EU level, led by the European External Action Service and the European Defence Agency, which convenes the Member States twice a year to discuss these issues. It's interesting to compare how the various countries are deploying their strategies, who their national contacts are, and so on. We share our practices and collectively try to rise to a higher level. In fact, we presented the "climate & defence" fresco there, so that it can be exported to other countries.

And abroad?

The Atlantic Alliance has addressed climate issues to position itself as the reference security organisation on the subject. The NATO Centre of Excellence for Climate Change and Security opened in Montreal at the end of last year. France is represented by two people, including the centre's chief of staff.

What are the upcoming projects?

There are three main projects. The first is to develop adaptation plans for each service, directorate and agency. To do this, we will need to build a network of climate correspondents within the armed forces. It already exists informally, but the idea is indeed to have already existing points of contact to rely on to develop these documents together. It's an ambitious, long-term but essential task. The second project concerns capability adaptation: we need to better document the consequences of climate change on our equipment and materials to adapt them to the future climate. If they are not resilient, we will not be able to honour our operational contracts. To do this, we are in contact with the Capability Coherence Division of the French Defence Staff, which is responsible for building the military model of the future, as well as the Weapons Systems Architects Service of the French Defence Procurement Agency.

And the third project?

Finally, we are thinking about the way of addressing the vulnerability of defence companies and their value chains to climatic hazards. Globalisation has led to a fragmentation of companies' value chains — a reality we became painfully aware of with covid-19. In this logic, couldn't the climate disrupt the supply chains of the defence industry? In this sense, the floods in Thailand in 2011 had disrupted the supply chains of computer hardware. 

As for the cold snap in Texas in 2021, it led to the shutdown of several petrochemical plants. What about the exposure of our small and medium-sized French businesses to climate hazards within the national territory? We need to conduct this analysis.
 

[1] A "serious game" is a training tool that uses game mechanisms (video, role-playing or board games) for educational purposes.

[2] In French: Centre de planification et de conduite des opérations.

[3] Concept of Operations.

Laura Garrigou